As a chef, state Rep. Francesca Hong knows a thing or two about what’s merely a flash in the pan and what’s catching fire—and in her race for governor, she appears to be the latter.
A new State Navigate poll sponsored by UpNorthNews and Main Street Action finds Hong with a commanding lead in the Democratic primary field, earning 44% of the vote, nearly 30 percentage points clear of the second place candidate, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who sits at 15%, and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who sits third with 14%.
The poll represents Hong’s strongest showing in a string of public opinion surveys, as she tops 40% for the first time versus the other four active Democratic candidates seeking the party’s nomination in the Aug. 11 primary. The winner will face US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Hazelhurst) in November for the chance to succeed retiring Democratic Gov. Tony Evers.
The poll of 1,085 likely Democratic primary voters in Wisconsin was fielded from July 23-26, 2026. The survey has a margin of error of ±3%. Respondents were contacted via text and completed an online survey designed by the State Navigate Polling Committee. Results were weighted by party identification, age, gender, race, education, voter registration date, and region, with benchmarks derived from the voter file, the US Census Bureau, and prior election results.
State Sen. Kelda Roys (D-Madison) and former Administration Secretary Joel Brennan each garnered 4% support, as did Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, who is no longer campaigning but will appear on the ballot. Former WEDC Secretary Missy Hughes, who has also dropped out of the race, received 1% support.
The poll is the first to measure the Wisconsin gubernatorial race’s current field, which underwent significant upheaval this month after Rodriguez exited the race because of financial irregularities and Crowley resumed a campaign he had ended just 10 days earlier. Crowley also collected the endorsement of Evers and reported raising more than $500,000 in his first week back on the trail.
Voters know what kind of candidate they’re supporting
Our poll asked voters likely to vote in Wisconsin’s Democratic primary to place themselves on a 1-10 scale of extremely conservative (1) all the way to democratic socialist (10) and then to do the same for the candidates.
While respondents’ self-identified as 7.3 (progressive/liberal) on average, they gave Hong an average rating of 9.1 (extremely progressive/liberal). All of the other candidates were rated as less progressive than the average respondent: Barnes and Roys were rated at 6.8, Crowley at 6.3, and Brennan at 5.9.
Notably, 21% of respondents self-identified as democratic socialist. Unsurprisingly, Hong won 81% of voters in this demographic. She also showed enormous strength with voters who rated themselves on the progressive/liberal spectrum, far outpacing Crowley and Barnes.
Much of Hong’s share of the vote comes from younger voters and those who have not voted consistently in the past.
Hong dominated with younger voters, winning 74% of 18-29 year olds and 67% of 30-44 year olds. No other candidate earned more than 14% among either age group.
The polling also showed Hong with 66% support among people who have not voted in a primary in the last four election cycles and 57% among those who have voted in just one primary in the last four cycles.
“Her support steadily declines the more primaries that a voter has participated in,” said Chaz Nuttycombe, State Navigate founder and executive director.
Just 29% of voters who have voted in all four of the past primary elections backed Hong—though that still put her above Crowley (19%) and Barnes (18%) among these voters.
Nuttycombe says their numbers indicate Hong will likely not do well with the 13% of voters who remain undecided, but with Hong already running well ahead of the field, “the only question that is left to answer, barring some sort of major shakeup in the race after our survey, is whether she gets a majority of the vote.”
Hong also led among:
- voters with a Bachelor’s degree or higher (50%) and those without a Bachelor’s degree (37%).
- both white voters (44%) and non-white voters (44%), primarily driven by strength with Latino voters.
- every income group, winning 35% of voters earning under $30,000 as well as 45% of voters earning $150,000 or more a year.
Second choices
Voters were asked about their second choice for gubernatorial candidate. Barnes was cited most often, by 20% of respondents, followed by Crowley with 12%, and Hong and Roys at 9%.
Hong’s supporters showed they were extremely “locked in,” according to Nuttycombe, with a disproportionate share of her supporters saying they had no second choice.
Top issues
Respondents were asked an open-ended question about “the number one issue that will impact who you vote for.”
Hong led on every issue except the one most cited, “electability/defeat Tiffany,” where Crowley came out on top. Notably, Hong won 65% of voters who cited affordability as a top issue, 50% of voters who mentioned healthcare, 86% of those who pointed to AI/data centers, and 67% who prioritized social issues.
Multiple primaries, voting underway
Voters have primaries throughout the state — primarily congressional and legislative — to determine the nominees for the November general election. There is also a Democratic primary for state treasurer to determine who will challenge Republican incumbent John Leiber. Our poll shows Yee Leng Xiong leading Dylan Helmenstine 21% to 13%, with two-thirds of respondents undecided.
As of Monday, the Wisconsin Elections Commission reported that 100,084 absentee ballots had been received by mail.
Of voters surveyed in the poll, 11% had returned their ballots, with 43% of them saying they have already cast their vote for Hong. Barnes finished second with 18% and another 16% said they had already returned ballots with a vote for Rodriguez.
