With less than three weeks left until the Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor, a new Marquette University Law School poll has some encouraging news for Rep. Francesca Hong and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, but the survey was taken before the chaos of last week that saw Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez exit the race and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley jump back in, with the endorsement of Gov. Tony Evers.
The Marquette Poll is seen as a consistent benchmark in Wisconsin polling, but its timing leaves an information gap on how voters see the primary field — one that UpNorthNews is working to fill with a new survey.
Hong in front, Barnes wins against Tiffany
In a survey of 838 registered Wisconsin voters taken July 8-16, Hong leads the outdated edition of the field with 26% support, Barnes at 15%, Rodriguez with 11%, and only 2% for former Administration Secretary Joel Brennan and 1% for Sen. Kelda Roys. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.5%.
What’s especially noteworthy at this late stage of the campaign is the 45% of respondents who say they are undecided.
Respondents were asked about second choices. If supporters of Rodriguez are moved to those candidates, Hong leads with 27%, followed by Barnes (18%), Brennan (5%), and Roys (2%), keeping in mind that Crowley was not part of the survey. The number of undecided voters rose to 48%.
But when the candidates are compared with Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany in a theoretical November match-up, only Barnes comes out on top when likely voters are asked: beating Tiffany 47%-42%, with 10% undecided. Hong ties Tiffany at 44%, with 11% undecided. Tiffany squeaks past Brennan and Roys, but the number of undecided voters increases.
In a reflection of how quiet the governor’s race has been on the Republican side, Tiffany gets 67%, with 30% of Republican voters describing themselves as undecided, and Andy Manske getting 2% support.
UpNorthNews, Main Street Action sponsoring a poll
UpNorth News is partnering with the small business advocacy group Main Street Action to have a poll done by State Navigate, a 501(c)(3) nonpartisan nonprofit organization that does data research on state government. In 2025, their inaugural year, they were named the most accurate pollster of the year. The poll results should be ready just as the candidates are heading into the final week of campaigning. Subscribers to the UpNorthNews weekly politics newsletter will get a first look at results.
