Will Gov. Tony Evers run for a third term? Here’s why he will—or won’t.

Wisconsin’s governor has public support and his party’s backing, but the Biden 2024 campaign has some Democrats ready to ditch what’s known for something new.

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Wisconsin is familiar with the idea of governors seeking a third term in office. Tommy Thompson got it done. (He even got elected to a fourth term.) Scott Walker did not. Tony Evers is approaching that popular fork in the road, whether to ask the voters to return him to office in 2026 or sail off into the sunset.

It’s perfectly natural to ask questions of any two-term governor considering a third bite of the apple. Questions like, “Should he run?” or “Can he win?” On one hand, there can be voter fatigue. On the other, there’s a sense of familiarity with an incumbent whose job approval numbers remain positive.

There’s one reason it feels different this time, and it has very little to do with Tony Evers. It has much more to do with former President Joe Biden, who has acknowledged the “terrible night” he had on June 27, 2024 on a debate stage with President Donald Trump.

Is that fair? Not necessarily, but since third-term speculation was going to happen anyway, it’s now happening through a prism that saw Biden make what many saw as a fatally-delayed decision to step out of the race for reelection.

“How can we not be having this conversation right now?” asks Milwaukee political journalist Dan Shafer, about a column at his site The Recombobulation Area titled, “Pass the Torch: Tony Evers should not run for a third term as governor.”

“If not Tony, then who?” read one of the many reactions in social media comment sections.

“People like Evers and his brand,” said another.

Evers has consistently said he won’t make a decision or an announcement until after the state budget is finalized.

Why Evers would run again

There are reasons why someone would want to serve a 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th year as govenor: From a public service standpoint, Evers may think he’s the best person to provide progressive leadership and keep fighting for items on Democrats’ agenda.  From a political standpoint: Evers will run if he thinks he’s the candidate with the best chance of winning in 2026. Supporters believe voters will go with someone they know and trust—and a lesser-known Democrat might lose and put a Republican in the Capitol’s east wing.

“The reality is that Tony Evers is a very good governor who has earned the space to make his own decision,” said Joe Zepecki, a Democratic strategist. “He is the most popular politician in Wisconsin and with good reason.”

Plus, Evers has never enjoyed a Democratic majority in either the Assembly or Senate. With fairer legislative maps now in place, Evers could potentially have the pleasure of signing more bills that reflect his values and those of bipartisan majorities across the state on topics ranging from voting rights to gun safety to reproductive health.

Why Evers wouldn’t run again

Even before Evers took office, Republicans in the Legislature conspired to be a full-time roadblock—meeting only a few weeks after he unseated Walker to hold a lame-duck session where they removed some of the governor’s powers. (Walker signed the legislation on his way out the door, making no attempt to defend the office against an attack by another branch of government.)

The state Senate continues to sit on more than 180 confirmations of agency heads and other leaders. They have removed a Cabinet officer, fired members of the UW Board of Regents, and removed many other board members. In budget negotiations, rather than following the traditional path of starting with the governor’s proposal and making modification, GOP lawmakers made a public showing of rejecting whatever he sent them and writing their own bill.

Then there are the lawsuits. From COVID safeguards to veto powers, to budget stalemates, Republicans repeatedly took Evers to court (at taxpayer expense) and he has had to do the same to them.

Faced with the potential that Republicans hold the Legislature into 2027, no one would fault Evers for saying he’s put up with enough.

What if Evers doesn’t run?

Evers didn’t walk into the job without a fight. When he first ran in 2018, there were a dozen Democratic candidates hoping to emerge victorious from the primary. Then there was an active primary in the 2022 US Senate race. Some, like state Sen. Kelda Roys (D-Madison) and Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski, remain active and could quickly form a campaign. Others, like Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson, and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, could quickly assemble a constituency. Add in some veteran legislators and Democrats can say they’d start the race for an open seat with a strong bench.

Whatever Evers decides, Republicans already have one official candidate, Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann. And if Evers exits the race, expect a large primary field for this rare opportunity in state politics.

What are the people saying? 

Shafer began his column by heaping a mountain of praise on Evers, giving him credit for leading “Wisconsin’s crawl back from the disastrous Scott Walker years” and providing stable, sane leadership during the pandemic. Then Shafer brought up Evers’ age (73) — less as a sign of any inability to do his job in a third term as it was a sign of exasperation with Baby Boomers who haven’t been babies for a very long time — serving into their 70s and 80s instead of encouraging younger successors.

“He has served the state well,” Shafer writes. “But he is not a young man, he is not going to be governor forever, and at a certain point, he’d be putting a whole lot more than his own legacy at risk by failing to recognize the long-term implications of not passing the torch to the next generation of leaders, and the short-term implications of running when you might be too old for the office.”

But almost any Democratic figures speaking publicly about the column say it is premature at best.

“I think it is just a gift to Republicans who want to see a fight,” said Melissa Baldauff, Evers’ former deputy chief of staff. “They want to see disunity. They want us to be divided and attacking one another.”

Baldauff pointed to the perpetual chaos that makes up the DNA of the Trump White House, with “no expectation that things are going to get calm and sane and easy and rational and effective anytime soon. People are really going to be looking for calm, steady, trusted leadership at the state level.”

Shafer responds that Democrats need to take their internal differences more seriously.

“Treating every piece of same-side-of-the-aisle criticism as a gift to Republicans plays into a deeply problematic mindset among Democrats, where they go out of their way to ignore or brush aside a certain topic that might generate conflicting opinions,” Shafer said. “The problem of being unable or unwilling to pass the torch is a problem that every Democratic leader at every level should be confronting as the party charts a new course forward after its losses in 2024.”

What is Evers saying?

In his speech at the state Democratic Party convention, Evers didn’t tip his hand either way. Earlier, he told WTMJ-TV he will weigh the decision while putting a priority on service, and that his eventual choice is not about legacy.

“Absolutely not. It does not matter to me. What matters to me and always has is getting things done for the people of Wisconsin, and there isn’t a political gain or loss on that. It’s just doing the right thing”.

Note: Baldauff and Zepecki are married and each appeared separately on the UpNorthNews radio show “Mornings with Pat Kreitlow.” 

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