Do you feel immune to a government shutdown? Think again.

Republicans’ massive cuts to health care have taken the nation closer to a standoff that will impact their constituents’ lives in many ways.

Do you see all of the headlines about congressional budget battles and threats of a government shutdown and think it’s nothing but political games that won’t affect your daily routine here in Wisconsin? Unfortunately, it’s probably not true. Republicans have taken President Donald Trump’s “my-way-or-the-highway” gambit to the point where we could be facing a stoppage even more dire than, well, the last time President Donald Trump was president and the nation had its longest-ever shutdown.

Here’s the background: The federal government ceases much of its operation if Congress does not pass a budget to start the new fiscal year. It can be a single bill,  but it is usually broken up into a package of multiple bills that cover different parts of the government. If Congress isn’t ready to pass a bill but doesn’t want a shutdown, it can pass something called a continuing resolution to temporarily maintain current spending levels. 

In a shutdown, not everything grinds to a halt, but federal employees in most of those areas have to keep working without getting paid temporarily. Many others will be furloughed: sent home unpaid and unable to count on an income until Capitol Hill politicians finish fighting. In the last Trump shutdown, paychecks were delayed or lost entirely to an estimated 1 million workers — from federal employees and contractors to ancillary workers doing work that only happens if the government is operating.

In Wisconsin, there are an estimated 18,000 federal civilian employees.

Do you?

Do you use health insurance? You may be among the 313,579 people in Wisconsin whose insurance comes from the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace, where coverage is made affordable because of federal subsidies. Earlier this year, Republicans in Congress sent Trump a measure that will end some of those subsidies and tax credits — wiping out coverage for an estimated 4 million Americans and making premiums more expensive for 20 million more. 

If not through the ACA, you may be among the approximately 1 in 5 Wisconsinites (or 1 million) who receive health care coverage and services through BadgerCare, the state’s Medicaid program, according to the Wisconsin Dept. of Health Services. Almost half of Wisconsin Medicaid members are children. Gov. Tony Evers’ office estimates the Medicaid cuts and additional red tape will cost 270,000 Wisconsinites their health insurance by taking away necessary support for them to afford coverage. 

Healthcare cuts are at the heart of the current shutdown showdown. Republicans need Democratic votes in order to pass a budget, and Democrats are demanding the restoration of health coverage, credits, and subsidies. Republicans have been refusing and are betting that a government shutdown will be so painful that Democrats will feel pressure to cave and stop fighting for affordable health care.

Still, if they cannot come to a consensus, this is what’s in store for Wisconsinites.

Do you serve in the military or know someone who does? Those men and women will not get paid and not be able to provide support to their families back home.

Do you travel? From Mitchell International in Milwaukee to small airports like Eau Claire and Mosinee, federal employees in the Transportation Safety Administration (TSA) will also be forced to work without pay. Same goes for air traffic controllers. There would be travel delays from coast-to-coast as workers in already thinned-out ranks refuse to take on extra shifts for no pay.

Do you eat? Food safety inspections may come to a halt. Farmers will have to wait for any crop subsidy payments and loans — and they’ll lose access to data that can help them plan harvests and plantings. Also, the Environmental Protection Agency may halt or slow inspections of drinking water and chemical facilities.

Do you rely on Social Security? Payments will continue to be processed, but other activities will be halted as workers at Social Security offices throughout Wisconsin and around the country are furloughed. Benefit verifications and the start of payments for new recipients will be paused.

Do you have employees? Do you need a mortgage? The Internal Revenue Service is required year-round for verification of income and Social Security numbers. 

Do you have a child using Head Start? There are about 16,000 Wisconsin children who rely on Head Start services. Childcare centers might not get the federal grants they need to stay open if the Department of Health and Human Services is shuttered. 

Do you visit National Parks and related sites? Wisconsin does not have National Parks, but it does have a National Lakeshore, two National Scenic Trails, and a National Scenic Riverway. In all cases, support staff would be furloughed. In the locations that weren’t closed, trash went uncollected.

Do you rely on the UW System? The Universities of Wisconsin may see a hold on research funding and contracts. International students may experience trouble with their visas.

Do you get mail? You can relax on this one. The US Postal Service is a self-funding agency and its half-million employees are exempt from being furloughed.

Do you have faith in Congress to avoid a shutdown? 

You may have a short window of optimism for a budget deal. Congress is off all week for Rosh Hoshanah and will only have next Monday and Tuesday to reach a deal before a possible shutdown at 12:01am on October 1.

Democrats proposed a measure last week to keep the government open and restore healthcare coverage, but Republicans voted it down. The progressive group Opportunity Wisconsin called out two of the state’s GOP lawmakers by name in criticizing the move.

“Congressmen [Bryan] Steil and [Derrick] Van Orden had an opportunity to reverse the damage they’ve caused to Medicaid and extend tax credits that would help thousands of Wisconsinites afford health care,” said Opportunity Wisconsin Program Director Meghan Roh. “Instead, they doubled down on extreme cuts and have refused to negotiate as a potential shutdown approaches at the end of September.”