Marquette Poll for August Shows Biden Leads Trump by 6 Points.
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Differences in sample sizes can explain variations in results

Editor’s Note: We asked political writer and Progressive Magazine contributor Jud Lounsbury about his criticisms of recent polling from the Marquette University Law School poll. The charts below are a supplement to his article found HERE.

Jud Lounsbury Note: The charts below show how recent Marquette University Law School polls compare with the 2016 Wisconsin exit poll, using bold text to show where they are too tilted (over 3%)  toward Republicans, and italicized text to show where the poll’s demographics are too tilted (over 3%) toward Democrats. (You will only notice italicized numbers in the final chart.)


Oct PollNov PollJan Poll2016 Exit Poll
Male47%47%47%49%
Female53%53%53%51%

RaceOct. PollNov. PollJan Poll2016 Exit Poll
White86%83%83%86%
African American3%4%5%7%
Hispanic5%6%4%4%
Asian1%1%1%1%

AgeOct PollNov PollJan Poll2016 Exit Poll
18-2914%14%14%17%
30-4422%20%21%23%
45+64%65%64%61%

EducationOct PollNov PollJan Poll2016 Exit Poll
High School30%30%30%20%
Some College/AA33%33%33%35%
College Degree 36%36%36%45%

Married?Oct PollNov PollJan Poll2016 Exit Poll
Married59%59%59%59%
Unmarried41%41%41%41%

AreaOct PollNov PollJan Poll2016 Exit Poll
Urban 27%27%n/a39%
Suburban35%35%n/a34%
Rural36%36%n/a27%

IncomeOct PollNov PollJan Poll2016 Exit Poll
Under $30,000/year16%16%16%19%
$30-50,000/year16%14%17%20%
$50-100,000/year32%31%27%34%
Over $100,000/year24%23%26%27%

Church AttendanceOct PollNov PollJan Poll2016 Exit Poll
At least once a month46%45%49%43%
Few times a year/ Seldom36%37%35%33%
Never17%16%15%23%

Union Household?Oct PollNov PollJan Poll
2016 Exit Poll
Yes14%14%14%21%
No84%85%85%79%

IdeologyOct PollNov PollJan Poll2016 Exit Poll
Conservative38% (6% “very conservative”)42% (10% “very”)41% (9% “very”)34%
Moderate32%32%35%40%
Liberal25% (7% “very liberal”)22% (7% “very”)20% (5% “very”)25%

Party Oct Poll (+ Independents that lean toward one party)Nov Poll (+ Independents that lean toward one party)Jan Poll (+ Independents that lean toward one party) 2016 Exit Poll (Didn’t ask leaner question) 
Republican31%(45%)28%(45%)28%(47%) 34% (na)
Independent40%(9%)42%(10%)44%(9%)30% (na)
Democrat29%(44%)28%(44%)26%(43%)35% (na)