(Image by Shutterstock)
(Image by Shutterstock)

New poll has Trump ahead, new analysis shows more energy among urban voters

As if Wisconsin voters needed more evidence of how close things could be this November, one survey shows President Trump ahead of all potential Democratic rivals here while a long-term analysis of polling in the upper Midwest shows progressive voter enthusiasm sharply higher than conservatives’.

A new poll released Thursday by Quinnipiac University shows President Trump leading the top six Democratic presidential candidates in Wisconsin by between 7 and 11 percentage points.

Trump was ahead by 11 points against Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar; 10 points against Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren; 8 points against former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg; 8 points against former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg; 7 points against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders; and 7 points against former Vice President Joe Biden.

The margin of error is 3.4 percentage points.

Trump pulled off a surprise upset in Wisconsin in 2016, beating Hillary Clinton by fewer than 23,000 votes.

In Pennsylvania and Michigan, two other key swing states in the election,Quinnipiac showed Trump trailing each Democratic candidate by up to 8 percentage points. Trump also won Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2016.

The poll — which could serve as a wakeup call to Wisconsin Democrats — gave Trump the largest advantage by far among the many polls tracked by the nonpartisan statistics site FiveThirtyEight. Other recent polls have shown Trump neck-and-neck with Democratic candidates.

Last month, a Fox News poll had Trump down by 1 to 5 percentage points against Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg and Warren. 

A January Marquette University Law School poll showed Trump 1 point behind Sanders and 4 percentage points behind Biden. That same poll saw Trump with a 2-point advantage over Buttigieg and 3-point advantage over Warren.

Meanwhile, an analysis of Reuters-Ipsos polling suggests the “blue wave” of progressive urban voter enthusiasm in 2018 that gave Democrats record-setting gains in the 2018 midterm elections remains strong compared to that of rural conservatives.

The Reuters findings come from examining online surveys of more than 88,000 voters from late 2015 to late 2019. The analysis says that while Trump has “rock-solid” support among Republican voters, there is more interest in voting expressed by those who disapprove of the President.

In smaller communities of the upper Midwest that include Wisconsin, the report says the number of people who said they are certain to vote in the presidential election increased only one percent over that four-year period, from 59 to 60 percent, compared to a ten percent increase to 67 percent certainty expressed among people living in large urban areas.